Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa32…bd9a sports 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38,708 (-7%) realized −$47,344 · open +$8,636
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%126W / 359L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,002per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$1,147est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$90,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$978
sports 18% −$987
other 17% −$1,757
politics 7% +$2,853
crypto 2% +$2,144
finance 1% +$294
tech 1% −$1,766
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -86.8% -88.1% 8% 6% -74.4%
≤30d 347 -74.3% -76.7% 17% 11% -41.7%
≤90d 485 -56.3% -60.5% 26% 20% -33.5%
all 485 -56.3% -60.5% 26% 20% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.5% 20% -33.5%
10% -64.3% 16% -39.9%
15% ← realistic here -67.7% 11% -45.7%
20% -70.9% 9% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$536 vs −$630 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$90,761
Realized−$47,344
Unrealized+$8,636
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses126 / 359
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,147
Open positions31
Markets (closed)485 / 259
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$2,002
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $26,270 $26,491 +$221 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 86¢ $21,308 $26,065 +$4,757 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 84¢ $10,125 $11,272 +$1,148 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 62¢ $5,992 $6,436 +$444 (+7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 80¢ $422 $3,940 +$3,518 (+833%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,961 $3,111 −$850 (-21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $2,860 $2,970 +$110 (+4%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $2,687 $2,847 +$160 (+6%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? No 69¢ 84¢ $1,380 $1,690 +$310 (+22%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 66¢ 66¢ $979 $987 +$7 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $924 $918 −$6 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 60¢ 52¢ $925 $814 −$111 (-12%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 36¢ 53¢ $432 $636 +$204 (+47%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 65¢ 61¢ $585 $549 −$36 (-6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 62¢ 99¢ $320 $511 +$192 (+60%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $157 $210 +$53 (+34%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 26¢ $392 $204 −$188 (-48%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $307 $154 −$153 (-50%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 84¢ 93¢ $122 $136 +$14 (+11%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $114 $126 +$12 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $276 $114 −$162 (-59%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $75 $112 +$38 (+50%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+30%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $79 $64 −$15 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 336 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Up Only podcast released by October 31? Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 29 $1,345 −$2,120 -158%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 29 $2,125 −$2,125 -100%
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? Jun 29 $544 −$544 -100%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Jun 29 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? Jun 29 $1,882 −$1,882 -100%
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Jun 29 $278 −$278 -100%
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Chile win Miss Universe 2025? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 29 $950 −$950 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 29 $4,330 −$4,375 -101%
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Chelley win Season 7 of Love Island USA? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 275000 Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? Jun 29 $441 −$441 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 6-7am? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: GnG Amazigh vs Baam Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Playoffs Jun 29 $240 −$240 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 29 $4,171 −$4,171 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 29 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Jun 29 $4,797 −$4,797 -100%
BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? Jun 29 $1,278 −$1,278 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 29 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Jun 29 $520 −$520 -100%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 250000 Jun 29 $89 −$89 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Jun 29 $280 −$433 -155%
Will CVS Health (CVS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September? Jun 29 $264 −$264 -100%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Jun 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 11am-12pm? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes? Jun 29 $345 −$345 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Jun 29 $149 +$222 +149%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes? Jun 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Jun 29 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27? Jun 29 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Allbirds (BIRD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 29 $724 −$724 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $4,322 −$4,322 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs Jun 29 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $174 −$174 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 29 $900 −$900 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Jun 29 $1,692 −$4,397 -260%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 20? Jun 29 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Shayne say "Mention" during 60 Minutes? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 66¢ $10 14m
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 66¢ $970 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $1,691 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $91 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $2,860 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $924 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $220 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 83¢ $52 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $29 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,186 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $3,373 3h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 6h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $65 7h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 7h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 7h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $31 10h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 65¢ $23 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90,761.05 · official $90,760.79 (match) · 3500 history records