Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa36…64f6 other 61 markets active 3d ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$8
other 26% +$2
politics 10% +$1
crypto 9% −$2
tech 5% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 7% -11.0%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 7% -11.0%
all 60 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage445d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $47 −$5 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $65 −$6 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Dec 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 13–20? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $7 $0 +4%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 03 $7 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 13 $18 −$1 -7%
Jordan Spieth Grand Slam? May 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records