Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa39…977f
crypto · 111 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$11,452 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,211 · open +$2,054
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29,698
Realized+$3,211
Unrealized+$2,054
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses50 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions99
Markets (closed)53 / 111
History coverage14d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day237.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 99 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$770
7 days+$2,875
14 days+$3,211
30 days+$3,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $5,976 $6,544 +$568 (+10%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 63¢ 79¢ $1,774 $2,221 +$448 (+25%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $1,424 $1,835 +$411 (+29%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 84¢ $1,421 $1,587 +$166 (+12%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $1,239 $1,352 +$113 (+9%)
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No 85¢ 95¢ $1,005 $1,127 +$122 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $965 $986 +$21 (+2%)
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? No 84¢ 94¢ $780 $869 +$89 (+11%)
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 71¢ 93¢ $548 $723 +$175 (+32%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $562 $574 +$12 (+2%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $528 $500 −$28 (-5%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $452 $492 +$40 (+9%)
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 81¢ 87¢ $424 $457 +$33 (+8%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 78¢ 87¢ $377 $422 +$45 (+12%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $362 $420 +$58 (+16%)
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $386 $414 +$28 (+7%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $388 $403 +$15 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $382 $402 +$20 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $487 $385 −$102 (-21%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 72¢ 79¢ $346 $380 +$35 (+10%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $375 $348 −$27 (-7%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 82¢ 92¢ $307 $342 +$35 (+12%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 85¢ $303 $340 +$37 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $400 $320 −$80 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $411 $317 −$93 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $827 +$15 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 12 $218 +$77 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $400 +$43 +11%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $668 +$182 +27%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $1,043 +$41 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 12 $738 +$58 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2,398 +$97 +4%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $300 +$50 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +50%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $725 +$12 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $840 +$185 +22%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $310 +$196 +63%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 11 $264 +$54 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,758 +$194 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $616 +$36 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $111 +$114 +103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 10 $811 +$31 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $2,322 +$275 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$19 -67%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$373 +373%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $75 +$4 +6%
Will John Ternus say "Macbook" 10+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 ev Jun 09 $76 +$14 +18%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 08 $149 +$2 +2%
Will John Ternus say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on J Jun 08 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 08 $1,195 +$28 +2%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 08 $130 +$20 +16%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $179 +$14 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $776 +$60 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $53 +$167 +316%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $600 +$53 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,383 +$40 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 07 $872 +$100 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $1,669 +$361 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $150 +$17 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 +$229 +556%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Jun 05 $55 +$10 +19%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $18 −$1 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,200 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$1,753
crypto 32% +$1,129
other 22% +$1,329
finance 6% −$105
politics 5% +$630
tech 2% +$528
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 16m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 22m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 28m
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $2 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 44m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $60 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $75 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +27.6% +15.4% 95% 48% +2.2%
≤30d 53 +38.0% +24.8% 94% 51% +2.7%
≤90d 53 +38.0% +24.8% 94% 51% +2.7%
all 53 +38.0% +24.8% 94% 51% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover237.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.8% 51% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here +12.9% 25% -7.1%
15% +2.0% 17% -16.1%
20% -8.0% 17% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,697.89 · official $29,696.64 (match) · 3500 history records