Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa39…1d90 crypto 453 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$441 (-4%) realized −$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%208W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$4
14 days−$197
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 69% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 155 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 29% -13.5%
≤90d 334 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 33% -14.6%
all 453 -18.3% -26.1% 46% 32% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 32% -14.3%
10% -33.1% 28% -22.5%
15% -39.6% 19% -30.0%
20% -45.5% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses208 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)453 / 453
History coverage96d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 453 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 06 $227 −$17 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 03 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $101 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $108 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1310 history records