Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa3a…94aa sports 164 markets active 4d ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,124 (-26%) realized −$1,116 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%93W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$85
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1,043
sports 37% +$61
world 11% −$129
other 2% −$34
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +7.4% -2.8% 61% 60% -1.2%
≤30d 150 +5.4% -4.7% 60% 59% -5.7%
≤90d 150 +5.4% -4.7% 60% 59% -5.7%
all 157 +3.4% -6.5% 59% 58% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% -33.5%
10% -15.4% 53% -39.9%
15% -23.6% 41% -45.7%
20% -31.1% 31% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$34 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses93 / 64
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)157 / 164
History coverage160d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 61¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 53¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$11 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $9 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 55¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 54¢ $10 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Zeynep Sonmez 71¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 37¢ $10 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY G2 NORD 0¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $10 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $10 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 38¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 27¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 79¢ $10 3d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Daniel Galan 66¢ $10 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY G2 NORD 5¢ $10 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $10 3d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 57¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp BUY Mia Pohankova 86¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 79¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $10 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $10 4d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 26¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 81¢ $10 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 68¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $10 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 59¢ $10 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.36 · official $92.36 (match) · 314 history records