Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

FA 0xfa3b…6900 crypto 17 markets active 22h ago coverage 465d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,939 (-22%) realized −$2,012 · open +$73

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip

Net edge-69%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%2W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$526per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$2,003now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2,080

7 days−$2,080

14 days−$2,080

30 days−$2,080

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-69.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-31.3%	-37.9%	0%	0%	-37.9%
≤30d	1	-31.3%	-37.9%	0%	0%	-37.9%
≤90d	3	-77.1%	-79.3%	0%	0%	-38.0%
all	16	-65.8%	-69.1%	12%	12%	-38.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.1%	12%	-38.1%
10%	-72.0%	6%	-44.0%
15%	-74.7%	6%	-49.4%
20%	-77.2%	0%	-54.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -52% → late -79% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$157 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage

Net worth$2,003

Realized−$2,012

Unrealized+$73

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses2 / 14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage465d

Avg bet$526

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1,931	$2,003	+$73 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Jun 16	$6,640	−$2,080	-31%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after	Mar 26	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t	Mar 26	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Trump resign today?	Mar 01	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?	Mar 01	$7	−$7	-100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Mar 01	$36	−$35	-95%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	Jul 12	$60	−$33	-54%
US recession in 2025?	Jul 12	$20	−$11	-55%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Kanye name his token Jew?	Apr 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31?	Mar 27	$10	+$2	+22%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?	Mar 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April?	Mar 18	$4	−$3	-74%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17?	Mar 18	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?	Mar 15	$120	−$7	-6%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?	Mar 15	$20	+$8	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2,005	21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2,010	21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1,749	41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1,526	41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1,000	73d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	82d
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	82d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	82d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	16¢	$1,600	98d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	17¢	$950	98d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$132	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$0	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$360	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$0	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$12	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$9	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$0	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$0	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$9	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$22	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$36	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$20	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$180	117d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	117d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,003.23 · official $2,003.23 (match) · 64 history records