Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa40…9e37 sports 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49,336 (-54%) realized −$49,386 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%111W / 207L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day148.7pace
Fees−$1,200est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35,185
7 days−$45,433
14 days−$53,612
30 days−$53,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$10,703
other 23% −$5,772
crypto 3% −$539
world 1% −$1,104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -34.2% -40.5% 33% 25% -69.1%
≤30d 318 -31.0% -37.5% 35% 26% -47.5%
≤90d 318 -31.0% -37.5% 35% 26% -47.5%
all 318 -31.0% -37.5% 35% 26% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.5% 26% -47.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.5% 21% -52.5%
15% -49.0% 19% -57.1%
20% -54.0% 15% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$367 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$49,386
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses111 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$1,200
Open positions16
Markets (closed)318 / 261
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$351
Trades / day148.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? No 88¢ 88¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? No 57¢ 100¢ $23 $40 +$17 (+75%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? No 87¢ 100¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 97¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+62%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? No 89¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 87¢ $14 $35 +$21 (+149%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? No 85¢ 84¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 69¢ 68¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? No 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Scotland leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Under 19¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $359 −$325 -90%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 19 $209 −$209 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $1,745 −$1,744 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $116 −$116 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 19 $4 −$1,186 -27043%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 19 $197 −$193 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 19 $655 −$624 -95%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 19 $0 $0 -102%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 19 $317 −$317 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 19 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,178 −$1,107 -94%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $313 −$313 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 19 $106 −$37 -35%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $190 −$190 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche Jun 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 19 $586 −$568 -97%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 19 $89 −$90 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Jun 19 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 19 $1,453 −$1,451 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L Jun 19 $3 +$22 +766%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $396 −$396 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 19 $1,169 −$1,181 -101%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Solary (+1.5) Jun 19 $307 −$324 -106%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Jun 19 $0 $0 -60%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $580 −$578 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $503 −$503 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 19 $194 −$195 -101%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: 5 Silly Mice vs Satan666 (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast As Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gr Jun 19 $681 −$681 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 19 $56 −$48 -87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 19 $339 −$347 -102%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 19 $1,540 −$1,587 -103%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 88¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $21 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $12 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 85¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $28 1h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $8 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $14 1h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $23 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 27h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 89¢ $36 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $11 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $11 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 27h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $5 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $11 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 85¢ $34 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $9 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 46h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $11 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.40 · official $448.72 (match) · 3500 history records