Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa40…2f43 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 231L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$39
sports 25% −$22
economics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$8
politics 7% −$6
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage138d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $957 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $430 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $163 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $762 −$2 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $336 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $280 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $422 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $251 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 5h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 15h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 17h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 18h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 19h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $65 21h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 27h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 28h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 31h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 37h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 40h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $66 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $66 43h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $66 44h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 46h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 47h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $67 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.07 · official $65.07 (match) · 1415 history records