Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FA 0xfa42…bf1e other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-5.4%	-14.4%	0%	0%	-14.4%
≤30d	1	-5.4%	-14.4%	0%	0%	-14.4%
≤90d	1	-5.4%	-14.4%	0%	0%	-14.4%
all	1	-5.4%	-14.4%	0%	0%	-14.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.4%	0%	-14.4%
10%	-22.6%	0%	-22.6%
15%	-30.1%	0%	-30.1%
20%	-36.9%	0%	-36.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage6d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$21	$21	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$49	−$3	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$35	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$21	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$46	4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$49	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.44 · official $54.44 (match) · 9 history records