Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa43…76a5 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 378d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,379 (+307%) realized +$1,434 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +397% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +349% what you keep after slip
Net edge+349%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 81% −$109
politics 16% +$1,481
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+349.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.2% -13.3% 25% 25% -42.2%
≤30d 4 -4.2% -13.3% 25% 25% -42.2%
≤90d 4 -4.2% -13.3% 25% 25% -42.2%
all 5 +396.6% +349.3% 40% 40% +562.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +349.3% 40% +562.8%
10% +306.3% 40% +499.4%
15% +267.1% 20% +441.5%
20% +231.1% 20% +388.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +397% · $-wt +634% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
18.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$741 vs −$18 · ×40.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.79 per $1 lost it wins $26.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$1,434
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage378d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $202 $148 −$53 (-26%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $120 −$55 -46%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 03 $74 +$1,481 +2003%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 33h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close SELL Yes 0¢ $2 38h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.73 · official $155.73 (match) · 261 history records