Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa46…606d other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$123 (+11%) realized +$132 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$158
sports 24% −$22
crypto 5% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 47% +19.2%
≤30d 17 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 47% +19.2%
≤90d 17 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 47% +19.2%
all 17 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 47% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 47% +19.2%
10% -24.0% 41% +7.7%
15% -31.4% 41% -2.7%
20% -38.1% 35% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$25 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $51 +$46 +90%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 +$27 +158%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$52 +47%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $133 +$8 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$82 -80%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $113 +$172 +153%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $51 +$79 +154%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 52¢ $51 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 89¢ $45 46h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $162 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 34¢ $17 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $163 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 19¢ $90 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $135 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $113 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $284 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $102 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $51 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.62 · official $40.62 (match) · 34 history records