Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa47…b9f1 politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% $0
world 28% −$9
other 22% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 0% -10.8%
all 46 -1.7% -11.0% 26% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage290d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $66 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $48 −$6 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $53 +$2 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $35 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $33 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $32 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 18 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $29 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $12 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Sep 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ayo Edebiri win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Sep 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $20 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $25 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $18 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $16 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $23 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $22 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $33 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records