Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa4d…57b9 crypto 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5,702 (-22%) realized −$10,997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%171W / 577L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day256.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,155
7 days−$9,571
14 days−$10,997
30 days−$10,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$917
other 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 642 -46.4% -51.5% 20% 20% -41.8%
≤30d 748 -41.1% -46.7% 23% 23% -39.7%
≤90d 748 -41.1% -46.7% 23% 23% -39.7%
all 748 -41.1% -46.7% 23% 23% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.7% 23% -39.7%
10% ← realistic here -51.8% 23% -45.4%
15% -56.5% 22% -50.7%
20% -60.7% 22% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$39 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses171 / 577
Open positions0
Markets (closed)748 / 423
History coverage12d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day256.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $219 $0 −$219 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records