Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FA 0xfa4e…eadf crypto 506 markets active 2h ago coverage 646d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,170 (-9%) realized −$3,172 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%224W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$937
politics 35% −$3,026
sports 13% +$675
economics 12% −$29
world 1% +$14
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 73 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 40% -18.9%
≤90d 129 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 46% -0.9%
all 505 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 43% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -18.6%
10% -24.0% 43% -26.4%
15% -31.3% 42% -33.5%
20% -38.0% 41% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$41 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

646d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$3,172
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses224 / 281
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)505 / 506
History coverage646d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$16 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$15 +144%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$52 +490%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$27 +256%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$13 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$15 +280%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $111 −$109 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $34 +$66 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 04 $78 −$77 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $17 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $16 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $38 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.65 · official $94.66 (match) · 852 history records