Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfa4e…5973 sports 797 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$458 (+1%) realized +$516 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%380W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$107
14 days+$46
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$97
world 5% −$341
other 4% +$208
politics 4% −$73
crypto 2% +$9
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 44% +0.3%
≤30d 86 -11.0% -19.4% 43% 41% -9.9%
≤90d 343 -17.5% -25.3% 44% 43% -8.4%
all 790 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 46% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 46% -9.2%
10% -29.2% 40% -17.9%
15% -36.0% 33% -25.8%
20% -42.3% 25% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$30 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$516
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses380 / 410
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions7
Markets (closed)790 / 797
History coverage158d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 58¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$17 +85%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$41 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $82 +$27 +33%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 +$19 +63%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$14 +111%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$26 +104%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $44 +$55 +125%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $51 +$56 +110%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $41 +$34 +83%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $17 +$13 +77%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $105 +$93 +88%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $40 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs BOMBA Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: NIP (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) May 24 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $15 −$8 -51%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $6 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $11 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $16 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $1 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 21¢ $6 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $12 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $11 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 12h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $15 12h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 23h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 23h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 9¢ $8 23h
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 9¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 34¢ $10 23h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 59¢ $45 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 51¢ $20 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 58¢ $23 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 65¢ $40 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY Misa Esports 43¢ $15 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Misa Esports 28¢ $10 4d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 36¢ $25 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.89 · official $68.89 (match) · 2576 history records