Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa4f…c2ab other 43 markets active 16h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$17
other 9% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 1% −$4
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 11% 6% -7.8%
≤90d 31 -1.5% -10.9% 13% 3% -9.9%
all 42 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage608d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 09 $2 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 04 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $206 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,716 −$8 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,476 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $1,659 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 16h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 33h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 36h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $9 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.30 · official $21.30 (match) · 288 history records