Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa51…264d other 86 markets active 13h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,612 (-2%) realized −$1,613 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,240per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$57
politics 37% −$49
sports 10% −$1,541
world 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -4.1% -13.2% 8% 5% -11.0%
all 85 -4.0% -13.1% 8% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -10.9%
10% -21.4% 5% -19.5%
15% -29.0% 4% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$1,613
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1,240
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $274 $274 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $447 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,302 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,948 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $778 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $876 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $831 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $835 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $2,195 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $412 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $547 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $3,480 −$5 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,245 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,854 −$2 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 25 $72 +$23 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $53 +$88 +165%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $65 −$65 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 19 $1,418 −$1,418 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $2,313 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $2,595 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $2,378 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,308 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,399 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,905 −$3 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $447 13h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $447 15h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $483 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $484 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $574 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $575 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $669 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $670 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $560 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $561 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $669 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $669 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $579 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $580 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $274 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $665 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $666 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $667 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $668 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $621 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $622 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $777 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $778 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $687 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $688 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $631 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.40 · official $274.40 (match) · 256 history records