Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa53…03e2 crypto 82 markets active 1d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+12%) realized +$24 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%42W / 29L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days+$18
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$16
other 11% −$5
world 10% +$10
sports 6% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% −$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 33% -40.8%
≤30d 63 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 46% +4.3%
≤90d 71 -0.8% -10.2% 59% 49% +4.0%
all 71 -0.8% -10.2% 59% 49% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 49% +4.0%
10% -18.8% 42% -5.9%
15% -26.7% 30% -15.0%
20% -33.9% 23% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses42 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)71 / 82
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 90¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 61¢ 39¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $16 +$10 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.18 · official $20.18 (match) · 211 history records