Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa57…2ec9 crypto 853 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,948 (-9%) realized −$4,945 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%396W / 445L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days+$539
14 days+$539
30 days−$2,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$3,618
sports 18% −$116
other 2% +$322
tech 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +26.1% +14.1% 51% 51% +4.9%
≤30d 307 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 43% -14.9%
≤90d 711 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 43% -15.5%
all 841 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 45% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 45% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 41% -23.4%
15% -27.9% 37% -30.8%
20% -34.9% 32% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$4,945
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses396 / 445
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions1
Markets (closed)841 / 853
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$36 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$42 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$44 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$8 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $191 +$345 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $55 −$25 -45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$40 +155%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$49 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$7 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$12 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$47 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$10 -42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$102 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$9 -30%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $10 +$90 +874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$52 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$30 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$46 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $111 +$77 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $115 +$103 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $220 −$142 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $218 −$111 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 20 $222 +$215 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$17 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $51 +$116 +226%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$11 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$30 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$23 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +64%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $41 32m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 6¢ $26 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 6¢ $82 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $13 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 20¢ $19 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 13¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 3h
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr BUY ALKA 14¢ $3 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 26¢ $106 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.22 · official $331.52 · 3500 history records