Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa58…d332 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$561 (+25%) realized +$561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 61% -7.1%
≤30d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 61% -7.1%
≤90d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 61% -7.1%
all 18 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 61% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 61% -7.1%
10% -19.3% 56% -16.0%
15% -27.1% 50% -24.1%
20% -34.3% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$115 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $94 −$89 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $203 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $204 +$91 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$39 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records