Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa59…d4ce sports 119 markets active 9h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-2%) realized −$152 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$134
14 days−$311
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$37
other 28% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.5% -5.4% 59% 51% -12.9%
≤30d 116 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 48% -12.7%
≤90d 116 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 48% -12.7%
all 116 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 48% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -12.7%
10% -21.1% 36% -21.1%
15% -28.7% 28% -28.7%
20% -35.7% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 54
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage26d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Raphael Collignon 53¢ 55¢ $232 $237 +$5 (+2%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Rinky Hijikata 27¢ 26¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ 6¢ $26 $11 −$15 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $73 −$33 -45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $83 −$24 -29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $59 −$20 -34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 −$10 -16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$72 +237%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $112 +$33 +29%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $60 +$41 +67%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $119 −$47 -39%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $57 +$40 +70%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $45 +$17 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$9 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $45 −$28 -62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 −$24 -35%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $99 +$6 +6%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $105 +$98 +93%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $29 +$5 +16%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $58 −$21 -37%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $50 −$3 -6%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $75 +$25 +34%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $42 +$29 +67%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $358 −$357 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $57 +$44 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 −$5 -11%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $315 +$55 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$73 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $259 +$15 +6%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $78 +$19 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $70 +$26 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $119 −$75 -63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $156 +$41 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $84 +$58 +69%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $65 +$28 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $53 −$28 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 +$73 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $85 +$44 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $115 +$20 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $39 −$38 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 +$14 +138%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $17 −$9 -51%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $70 −$2 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $25 −$3 -12%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $84 −$83 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $56 −$55 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $65 +$9 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 52¢ $123 8h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ $12 11h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ $7 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 13h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ $0 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ $4 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $105 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ $2 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $73 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $59 15h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 27¢ $56 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 38¢ $34 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 38¢ $2 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 38¢ $2 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 38¢ $0 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 38¢ $0 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $59 17h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 55¢ $113 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $65 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $55 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $80 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $57 21h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $101 21h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ $60 22h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $47 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.43 · official $302.43 (match) · 408 history records