Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa59…98a7 crypto 948 markets active 24h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%564W / 384L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$24
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$135
finance 4% −$14
politics 1% −$5
other 1% −$10
tech 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.7% -11.9% 64% 36% -8.4%
≤30d 148 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 34% -12.4%
≤90d 453 -13.1% -21.4% 54% 34% -18.2%
all 948 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 44% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -11.7%
10% -21.9% 22% -20.2%
15% -29.4% 12% -27.9%
20% -36.4% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses564 / 384
Open positions0
Markets (closed)948 / 948
History coverage146d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 948 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $49 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $32 −$28 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $42 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $80 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $48 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$12 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $102 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$13 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $9 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3019 history records