Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa5a…edf2 world 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$416 (-2%) realized −$334 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%58W / 64L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$476
7 days−$497
14 days−$544
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$424
other 22% −$589
weather 9% −$266
tech 4% +$52
finance 2% −$7
sports 1% +$62
crypto 1% +$12
politics 0% −$12
economics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% -28.0%
≤30d 54 +5.2% -4.8% 52% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 122 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 34% -11.1%
all 122 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 34% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -11.1%
10% -23.0% 19% -19.6%
15% -30.4% 16% -27.4%
20% -37.2% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$905
Realized−$334
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses58 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)122 / 127
History coverage82d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $600 $575 −$25 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $280 $309 +$29 (+10%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $404 −$279 -69%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $669 −$204 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $110 +$45 +41%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,142 −$92 -8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$15 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $210 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $51 −$18 -35%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $308 −$54 -18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$18 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $550 +$64 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Belarus vs. Syria: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 −$9 -85%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 02 $104 −$64 -62%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 02 $10 $0 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $43 +$73 +171%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $302 −$5 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,544 +$60 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,298 +$108 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $9 +$8 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $602 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $672 12m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $251 43m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 48m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 50m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $202 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 39¢ $196 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 87¢ $121 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 83¢ $174 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $307 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 61¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $202 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $199 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 41h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $154 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $125 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $100 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.87 · official $904.85 (match) · 382 history records