Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa5e…3329 politics 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 661d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%24W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% +$46
other 10% +$2
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 50% +6.1%
all 30 +3.0% -6.9% 80% 13% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 13% -8.5%
10% -15.8% 3% -17.3%
15% -23.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×10.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.15 per $1 lost it wins $49.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

661d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses24 / 6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)30 / 45
History coverage661d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will "i hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $135 +$23 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $2 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Timberwolves Mar 01 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $104 +$21 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Nov 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Oct 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election? May 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? May 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? May 10 $436 +$2 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 20 $114 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 14 $1,140 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his North Carol Sep 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 20 $1,465 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 20 $797 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will "i hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $158 47d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 93d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $135 106d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $2 106d
Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 106d
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 106d
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $2 106d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.87 · official $73.36 (match) · 411 history records