Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

FA 0xfa61…522a other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$4,237 (-26%) realized −$3,824 · open −$413

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2,059per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$113est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-40.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	+6.4%
≤30d	6	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	+6.4%
≤90d	6	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	+6.4%
all	6	-34.7%	-40.9%	33%	33%	+6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-40.9%	33%	+6.4%
10% ← realistic here	-46.6%	33%	-3.8%
15%	-51.7%	33%	-13.1%
20%	-56.5%	33%	-21.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4,332 vs −$1,492 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.45 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$574

Realized−$3,824

Unrealized−$413

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$113

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage5d

Avg bet$2,059

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$487	$479	−$8 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	16¢	3¢	$500	$95	−$405 (-81%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$7,880	+$7,153	+91%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$998	−$971	-97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,992	−$1,961	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,007	−$983	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,497	+$1,510	+101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$2,087	−$2,052	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$497	31m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$513	32m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$15,032	36m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$4,888	1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$2,991	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$998	3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1,992	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	22¢	$400	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$607	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	98¢	$3,007	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1,497	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	30¢	$994	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$1,094	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.02 · official $574.02 (match) · 13 history records