Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa67…1fdd other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 30% −$7
politics 8% −$3
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% +$3
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -7.7% -16.5% 23% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -14.3% -22.5% 21% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 4% -10.1%
10% -22.7% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.1% 2% -26.6%
20% -37.0% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage466d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 48¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $3 $0 -2%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea May 30 $10 $0 -1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 29 $10 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 25 $2 +$2 +111%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $6 −$2 -25%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? May 07 $7 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Titans draft a Quarterback? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $27 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $28 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.19 · official $26.19 (match) · 160 history records