Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FA 0xfa6e…6d8e other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$123 (+4%) realized +$120 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown97%max

Avg bet$559per market

Trades / day7.5pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-3.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+6.9%	-3.3%	60%	60%	+7.6%
≤30d	5	+6.9%	-3.3%	60%	60%	+7.6%
≤90d	5	+6.9%	-3.3%	60%	60%	+7.6%
all	5	+6.9%	-3.3%	60%	60%	+7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.3%	60%	+7.6%
10%	-12.5%	60%	-2.7%
15%	-21.0%	60%	-12.1%
20%	-28.7%	40%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$384 vs −$319 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$353

Realized+$120

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$559

Trades / day7.5

Drawdown97%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	No	53¢	54¢	$350	$353	+$3 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$507	+$454	+90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$689	+$363	+53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$534	−$137	-26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$759	+$335	+44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$509	−$501	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	53¢	$355	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	52¢	$507	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	84¢	$1,053	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$689	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	80¢	$388	7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$534	10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	85¢	$1,094	27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$759	29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$509	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.30 · official $353.30 (match) · 10 history records