Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa6f…9e85 other 1039 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1034W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$21
sports 43% +$7
politics 3% +$1
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 365 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 769 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 1037 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1034 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1037 / 1039
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1037 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Bernhardsson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Colton Sissons lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Khalil Ayari: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Evann Guessand: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 1 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Kō Itakura: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
David Raum: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 2 - 2 CD Limache? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Tanger 3 - 2 US Yacoub El Mansour? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 2 - 1 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 3+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Devin Vassell score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Julian Champagnie record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Duckens Nazon: 5+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Douglas Santos: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Sandro: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Michel Aebischer: 2+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Jassem Gaber: 3+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Manuel Akanji: 2+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HEROIC Academy (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Lim vs. Pucar: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Kihara vs. Zhu: Total Games O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Mauricio Magalhães: 1+ assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Alexander Bernhardsson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Herman Johansson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Khalil Ayari: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Colton Sissons lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Evann Guessand: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Memphis Depay: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 1 Vila Nova FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Kō Itakura: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
David Raum: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: CD Concepción 2 - 2 CD Limache? BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: IR Tanger 3 - 2 US Yacoub El Mansour? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 2 - 1 Ranheim? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 16h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 100¢ $5 18h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $5 25h
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 25h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 2097 history records