Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa71…d510
crypto · 1549 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$543 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$528 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$528
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1032 / 517
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1549 / 1549
History coverage70d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 1549 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$15
14 days−$30
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +175%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$495
other 4% −$45
sports 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -20.9%
≤30d 261 -22.1% -29.5% 31% 30% -21.2%
≤90d 1549 -11.3% -19.7% 67% 35% -16.7%
all 1549 -11.3% -19.7% 67% 35% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 35% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 22% -24.7%
15% -34.4% 14% -31.9%
20% -40.9% 10% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.24 · official $2.24 (match) · 3500 history records