Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FA 0xfa72…81bc other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$104
crypto 22% +$32
sports 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 44% -4.8%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 44% -4.8%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 44% -4.8%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 44% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 44% -4.8%
10% -18.4% 36% -13.9%
15% -26.3% 32% -22.2%
20% -33.5% 20% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $501 +$29 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $5 +$8 +161%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $401 +$57 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$48 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $451 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $5 27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 4¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $351 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $62 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.27 · official $560.01 (match) · 47 history records