Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FA 0xfa77…6608 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+11%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$8
other 46% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +15.4%
≤30d 6 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +15.4%
≤90d 6 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +15.4%
all 6 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 67% +15.4%
10% +2.4% 67% +4.4%
15% -7.5% 67% -5.7%
20% -16.6% 67% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 42m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 49m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 56m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 15h
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 18h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 30h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 34h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 34h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.62 · official $32.62 (match) · 16 history records