Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfa79…179e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+1%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$899
7 days−$641
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$45
sports 18% +$82
world 17% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 75% -28.8%
≤30d 8 +10.8% +0.2% 62% 50% -10.1%
≤90d 8 +10.8% +0.2% 62% 50% -10.1%
all 11 +8.4% -1.9% 64% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 36% -9.0%
10% -11.3% 27% -17.7%
15% -19.9% 9% -25.7%
20% -27.7% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$291 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage167d
Avg bet$979
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $91 +$24 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,146 −$1,057 -92%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,012 +$134 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $756 +$258 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,207 −$29 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $609 +$639 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $590 +$42 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1,046 −$53 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 04 $1,045 −$24 -2%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? Feb 19 $2,001 +$78 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $999 +$46 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $115 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $91 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $57 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $31 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,146 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,146 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,012 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $756 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $1,243 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,178 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,207 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $324 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $903 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $609 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $632 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $590 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $531 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $405 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $463 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $323 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,021 113d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,079 125d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,001 125d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,045 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records