Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfa7a…f500 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 554d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$75 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$201
14 days+$214
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$152
other 33% +$6
politics 7% +$8
sports 1% +$5
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +77.9% +61.0% 100% 100% +61.0%
≤30d 12 +130.9% +108.9% 100% 100% +63.8%
≤90d 15 +97.2% +78.4% 87% 87% +52.3%
all 44 +37.2% +24.2% 75% 48% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.2% 48% +2.2%
10% +12.3% 48% -7.6%
15% +1.4% 45% -16.5%
20% -8.5% 45% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$30 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage554d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 56¢ 2¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 51¢ 1¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$20 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$18 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$18 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 22 $1 +$7 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET May 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 13 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$46 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$47 +95%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$48 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$44 +88%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$44 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 2 Mar 07 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 07 $50 +$42 +84%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jan 19 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Nov 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of November 10 above $250? Nov 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 10 $14 $0 -1%
Which party wins Virginia House of Delegates? Nov 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Swift release “The Life of a Showgirl” after September Oct 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 28 $14 $0 +0%
Record low border encounters in June? Sep 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jul 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026? Jul 07 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 21 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 10 $497 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $46 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $46 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $47 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $43 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $48 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $48 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 60d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY No 13¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $96 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.52 · official $14.26 · 109 history records