Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa7c…9de1 politics 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$13
other 12% −$2
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -1.9% -11.2% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage662d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Chellie Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Jumper airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Chris Dobey win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13? Dec 09 $0 $0 -5%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Besiktas win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Trump nominate Matt Rosendale for Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 14h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $50 21d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 34d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 36d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 45d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $51 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 68d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 83d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 84d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $51 94d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 95d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 96d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $52 99d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 99d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $16 99d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $52 102d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $52 102d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $52 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $52 105d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 108d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 108d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 116d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 117d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $50 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records