Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa80…37ce weather 999 markets active 5d ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%993W / 6L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day82.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 872 -0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 999 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 2% -8.7%
all 999 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 2% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 2% -17.5%
15% -24.7% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$229 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses993 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)999 / 999
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$252
Trades / day82.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 999 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $620 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $619 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 14 $352 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June Jun 14 $191 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $291 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $619 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $489 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $619 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $620 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $466 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $227 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $190 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $538 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 79°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $638 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 13 $793 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $657 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $507 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on June Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 12? Jun 13 $827 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 12? Jun 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 12 Jun 13 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on June 1 Jun 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on June 1 Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $632 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on June 1 Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $810 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $827 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $78 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $68 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $507 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $96 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $510 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $333 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $154 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $825 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $825 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $114 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $224 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $122 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $619 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $74 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $45 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $95 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $343 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $570 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $52 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $258 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.37 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records