Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa81…44a9 sports 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,035 (+5%) realized +$2,212 · open −$177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%124W / 172L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days+$3,284
30 days+$2,967
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$3,460
crypto 22% +$284
other 19% −$2,362
world 0% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.5% -34.4% 0% 0% -33.4%
≤30d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 40% 40% +17.5%
≤90d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 40% 40% +17.5%
all 296 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 41% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 41% -6.2%
10% -23.3% 39% -15.2%
15% -30.7% 35% -23.4%
20% -37.5% 32% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +66% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$90 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$2,212
Unrealized−$177
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses124 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions4
Markets (closed)296 / 301
History coverage173d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $193 $216 +$23 (+12%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $148 $145 −$3 (-2%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 23¢ $48 $32 −$16 (-34%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $181 $0 −$181 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $181 −$92 -51%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,589 −$1,568 -99%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw? Jun 06 $324 −$317 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $1,989 −$72 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,973 +$3,590 +182%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $289 +$170 +59%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 04 $197 +$144 +73%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $198 +$157 +80%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $200 +$194 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $661 +$1,091 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 03 $200 −$197 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1,967 −$113 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -96%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Mar 08 $26 −$24 -92%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5 Mar 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Bulls vs. Suns Mar 06 $81 −$81 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Chelsea FC? Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 0 Chelsea FC? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 1 Chelsea FC? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 3 Chelsea FC? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Chelsea FC? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 27 $177 −$174 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 27 $151 +$26 +17%
Spread: Celtics (-17.5) Feb 27 $76 −$7 -10%
Bristol City FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 27 $45 +$37 +82%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $45 −$45 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $94 −$3 -4%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $100 −$6 -6%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $78 −$2 -2%
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Feb 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 27 $134 −$6 -4%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 25 $14 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 25 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $197 10m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 28¢ $89 11m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $151 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $192 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $181 3h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $49 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $183 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 18¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 11d
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,589 11d
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $324 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $1,917 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,013 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $5,563 11d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 95¢ $458 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $976 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $1,118 12d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 59¢ $289 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $855 13d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $355 13d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $394 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,752 13d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 57¢ $197 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $273 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $130 14d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $200 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 50¢ $200 14d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $198 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $259 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.73 · official $380.82 · 665 history records