Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

FA 0xfa84…0e9a other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$47 (+16%) realized +$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%6W / 4L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day6.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit37%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-20.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-12.4%	-20.7%	60%	60%	+15.4%
≤30d	10	-12.4%	-20.7%	60%	60%	+15.4%
≤90d	10	-12.4%	-20.7%	60%	60%	+15.4%
all	10	-12.4%	-20.7%	60%	60%	+15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.7%	60%	+15.4%
10%	-28.3%	50%	+4.3%
15%	-35.2%	50%	-5.8%
20%	-41.6%	20%	-15.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized+$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses6 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions9

Markets (closed)10 / 19

History coverage4d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day6.2

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	88¢	90¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Over	44¢	44¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	81¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Over	49¢	48¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Under	55¢	52¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 20	$26	+$15	+58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$2	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 19	$10	−$5	-48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$4	+38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$88	+$44	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$8	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$5	19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	19h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	44¢	$10	19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	44¢	$5	3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	55¢	$5	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	88¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$88	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.71 · official $94.71 (match) · 29 history records