Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa88…db67 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 31% −$5
sports 16% −$10
crypto 8% −$3
politics 2% −$1
finance 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 42 +47.7% +33.6% 33% 7% -9.7%
all 50 +32.8% +20.2% 30% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 8% -10.0%
10% +8.7% 4% -18.6%
15% -1.8% 4% -26.5%
20% -11.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage536d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $113 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $79 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $37 −$3 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $126 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $76 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $37 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $44 −$1 -1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $43 −$6 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $104 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $246 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 21 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 20 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Celtic vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt beat FC Twente? Feb 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 30 $6 +$3 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $15 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $7 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $22 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $22 19h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $6 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $5 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $12 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $44 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.00 · 208 history records