Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa8b…34e3 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$364 (-35%) realized −$404 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$38
world 34% −$349
other 30% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 54% -6.0%
≤30d 13 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 54% -6.0%
≤90d 13 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 54% -6.0%
all 14 +4.5% -5.5% 50% 50% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 50% -39.7%
10% -14.5% 50% -45.5%
15% -22.8% 50% -50.7%
20% -30.4% 50% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$90 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage111d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $60 $100 +$40 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14 +$20 +137%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S Jun 18 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$39 +76%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 +$36 +101%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$68 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$55 +57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $349 −$349 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 22h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $14 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S BUY 31¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $76 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $76 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $150 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $199 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 23 history records