Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa8c…9169 weather 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,529 (+9%) realized +$2,204 · open +$325
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%132W / 73L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$1,268
14 days+$2,062
30 days+$1,823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$1,809
crypto 4% −$35
other 2% +$374
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +36.2% +23.3% 71% 60% -0.5%
≤30d 205 +14.7% +3.8% 64% 53% -3.3%
≤90d 205 +14.7% +3.8% 64% 53% -3.3%
all 205 +14.7% +3.8% 64% 53% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.8% 53% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 38% -12.6%
15% -15.2% 22% -21.0%
20% -23.6% 12% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$41 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,296
Realized+$2,204
Unrealized+$325
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses132 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)205 / 215
History coverage28d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? No 55¢ 100¢ $223 $404 +$180 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 50¢ 76¢ $137 $209 +$72 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $115 $142 +$27 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 70¢ 66¢ $130 $122 −$8 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $78 $99 +$21 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $74 $86 +$12 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $92 $85 −$7 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $53 $67 +$14 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 77¢ 99¢ $38 $50 +$11 (+29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 62¢ 67¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 +$81 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$52 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $113 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $165 −$69 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $536 −$62 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $402 −$47 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $223 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $271 −$179 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$25 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $129 +$122 +94%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $27 +$9 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$56 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$40 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 +$51 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$17 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$44 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $255 −$82 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $206 +$103 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$140 +3439%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$30 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $126 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $354 +$53 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $357 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $466 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$57 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $137 −$29 -21%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $29 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $118 +$23 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $138 +$163 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$14 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $123 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$18 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $183 +$128 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $148 +$50 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$23 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$20 +50%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$9 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $168 −$45 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$27 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$96 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $44 21m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $33 46m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $104 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $94 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $131 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 49¢ $63 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $67 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $47 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 76¢ $19 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 78¢ $34 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $21 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 77¢ $39 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $189 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $66 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $85 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $116 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $62 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,295.89 · official $1,278.31 · 1044 history records