Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa8d…8389 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$13
sports 9% +$10
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 25% -14.9%
≤30d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 25% -14.9%
≤90d 8 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 25% -14.9%
all 8 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 25% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 25% -14.9%
10% -39.9% 25% -23.0%
15% -45.7% 25% -30.4%
20% -51.0% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.71 · official $39.71 (match) · 12 history records