Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa8e…22eb other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+4%) realized +$223 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$520
14 days+$502
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$227
sports 27% +$415
crypto 19% −$24
world 2% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +37.1% +24.0% 46% 43% +40.2%
≤30d 53 +18.4% +7.1% 47% 38% +24.1%
≤90d 105 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 38% -3.6%
all 109 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 39% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 39% -3.1%
10% -16.0% 38% -12.4%
15% -24.1% 34% -20.8%
20% -31.5% 28% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$26 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$223
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 61
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 126
History coverage204d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $62 $69 +$7 (+11%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $26 −$22 -84%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$28 +292%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$64 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Cyle Larin: 2+ goals Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$55 +109%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 +$93 +1288%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 +$48 +109%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $61 +$52 +86%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$128 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 +$68 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$46 +101%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$21 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 17 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $80 +$30 +38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $30 +$107 +359%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $31 +$57 +185%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $102 +$168 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 30 $10 +$6 +62%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $138 +$168 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 29 $19 +$1 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $39 +$6 +16%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? May 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 43m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL $4 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Germany leading at halftime? BUY 21¢ $15 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 11¢ $26 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $15 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 30¢ $31 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $21 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 45h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 BUY 22¢ $10 45h
Cyle Larin: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 45h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $2 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ assists AND Cyle Larin: 1+ goals AND Mexico vs. Kor BUY $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $3 2d
Cyle Larin: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Mexico vs. Korea BUY 25¢ $20 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ assists AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 13¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND BUY 27¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Switze BUY 27¢ $20 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 25¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.82 · official $72.39 · 216 history records