Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa8f…0c92
crypto · 150 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$116 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$111 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses85 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)136 / 150
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 14 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$26
14 days+$22
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 70¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 72¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 36¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 27? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Juan Manuel Cerundolo 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Alex Michelsen 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry Ann Li 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 40% +$19
sports 33% +$5
other 8% −$1
world 8% +$98
weather 5% −$11
politics 4% −$2
finance 0% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 16h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +21.2% +9.7% 76% 65% +9.6%
≤30d 135 +23.4% +11.6% 62% 51% -1.2%
≤90d 136 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 51% +0.0%
all 136 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 51% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 51% +0.0%
10% +1.4% 36% -9.5%
15% -8.4% 24% -18.3%
20% -17.4% 16% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.35 · official $14.96 (match) · 364 history records