Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa95…6cad other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 24% −$4
economics 24% −$4
politics 23% −$7
other 20% +$1
sports 9% −$9
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -3.8% -13.0% 69% 12% -9.6%
all 38 -11.4% -19.8% 58% 21% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 21% -9.7%
10% -27.5% 18% -18.3%
15% -34.5% 11% -26.2%
20% -40.9% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage459d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $3,134 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $3,169 −$4 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $3,173 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 08 $4 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 25 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? Apr 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $1,442 −$1 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Mar 03 $3 +$2 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Austin Vanderford vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Welterwe Feb 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $3 +$4 +108%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Feb 17 $2 $0 +24%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 17 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Dec 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12? Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds United vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06? Dec 08 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? Nov 21 $1 $0 +33%
Will the Titans draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Northwest Territories seat in the next May 01 $2 $0 +2%
Brewers vs. Cardinals May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3,130 48m
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $3,134 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,166 2h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,169 2h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,169 3h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,173 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $4 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2 22d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $3 28d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $4 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $2 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 37d
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En BUY No 92¢ $3 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 43d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria BUY Yes 17¢ $4 78d
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? BUY No 50¢ $4 78d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 86d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 86d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY NIP 35¢ $2 100d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,441 103d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,442 103d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 81¢ $2 103d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 79¢ $2 104d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 121d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 48¢ $3 125d
UFC Fight Night: Austin Vanderford vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Welterwe BUY Vanderford 50¢ $4 125d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $2 132d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 132d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,183 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records