Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa96…3b4f sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$72 (+5%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$457
14 days+$242
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$412
other 38% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.7% +25.5% 88% 88% +38.0%
≤30d 17 +9.6% -0.8% 59% 59% +5.5%
≤90d 17 +9.6% -0.8% 59% 59% +5.5%
all 17 +9.6% -0.8% 59% 59% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 59% +5.5%
10% -10.3% 53% -4.6%
15% -19.0% 47% -13.8%
20% -26.9% 35% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$60 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage13d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $151 +$36 +24%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $300 +$140 +47%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $30 +$5 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $203 +$112 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $99 +$121 +123%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 +$48 +97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $183 −$181 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $150 +$134 +90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $22 +$28 +127%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$24 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $187 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $151 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $440 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $149 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $151 4h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 39h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 91¢ $315 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 13¢ $16 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $13 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $82 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $99 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $183 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 8d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $150 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $58 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $45 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 11d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $22 11d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records