Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa98…af7f crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$102 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate55%69W / 57L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$175
crypto 30% −$140
sports 13% −$57
world 7% +$57
tech 4% −$16
finance 2% −$13
politics 2% +$8
economics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.9% +7.6% 75% 50% -11.0%
≤30d 13 +22.3% +10.7% 77% 62% +7.1%
≤90d 28 +14.9% +4.0% 54% 43% +0.2%
all 126 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 17% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 17% -9.1%
10% -17.4% 10% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 5% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses69 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions6
Markets (closed)126 / 132
History coverage565d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $280 $281 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 60¢ $129 $120 −$9 (-7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 79¢ 80¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 18¢ $73 $12 −$61 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $62 +$12 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 26 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 26 $222 −$33 -15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 26 $14 +$10 +66%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $172 +$35 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $61 +$67 +110%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $268 +$117 +44%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $12 −$1 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $11 +$3 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $266 +$34 +13%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 30 $102 −$10 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 25 $118 +$31 +26%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 20 $66 +$168 +255%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 14 $398 +$122 +31%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $432 −$3 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $11 $0 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $126 −$44 -35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $46 −$18 -38%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Apr 30 $231 +$46 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Apr 13 $0 $0 -100%
Pacers vs. Nets Apr 09 $37 −$1 -3%
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Apr 09 $300 −$10 -3%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 09 $440 −$43 -10%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 09 $700 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $99 +$5 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 30 $108 −$18 -16%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 164.5 Mar 27 $520 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 24 $34 −$2 -4%
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? Mar 17 $48 +$14 +29%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $213 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 10 $540 −$22 -4%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 09 $274 −$211 -77%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? Mar 07 $129 +$1 +0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 05 $14 −$4 -32%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $28 −$4 -14%
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 04 $121 +$1 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? Mar 01 $176 −$1 -1%
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $137 −$34 -25%
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 25 $131 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $114 $0 -0%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026? Feb 16 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 15 $453 +$6 +1%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Feb 14 $152 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 75¢ $74 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 61¢ $62 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $33 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $28 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $4 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $99 25h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $7 30h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $25 30h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $1 30h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $20 30h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $13 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $171 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $95 34h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No 25¢ $24 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No $7 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No $9 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 14¢ $14 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $19 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $21 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $0 3d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.09 · official $554.09 (match) · 898 history records