Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa99…765c crypto 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (388 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+3%) realized +$347 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%86W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day387.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$45
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (388 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 42% -8.4%
≤30d 149 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 149 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 42% -8.4%
all 149 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 42% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover387.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 42% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 28% -17.2%
15% -22.8% 13% -25.2%
20% -30.3% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses86 / 63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)149 / 152
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day387.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $161 $233 +$72 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 80¢ 92¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 45¢ 8¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $91 $1 −$90 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $120 −$35 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $188 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$21 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $80 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $242 +$60 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $173 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $91 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $98 +$27 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $139 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $190 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $91 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $267 +$29 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $272 −$28 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $114 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $88 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $120 −$52 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$14 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $229 −$63 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $115 −$6 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $188 +$8 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $124 +$19 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$12 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$8 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$8 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $238 −$55 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $106 +$11 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$2 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $36 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $33 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.85 · official $284.98 · 857 history records