Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FA 0xfa9b…4ce0 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$162 (-13%) realized −$108 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$80
sports 34% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +43.5% +29.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
≤30d 22 +43.5% +29.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
≤90d 22 +43.5% +29.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
all 22 +43.5% +29.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.8% 55% +12.8%
10% +17.4% 55% +2.0%
15% +6.1% 55% -7.9%
20% -4.3% 45% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$27 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 45
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $55 $73 +$18 (+33%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $156 $68 −$88 (-56%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 40¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+153%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $15 +$38 +250%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $182 +$116 +64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $22 +$14 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$5 +226%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$28 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$17 +119%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Jun 19 $41 +$140 +342%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $86 −$4 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia vs. South Africa en Jun 18 $10 +$41 +400%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$29 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$45 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 35¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $44 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $56 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $172 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $15 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 6¢ $10 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $182 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $148 42h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $5 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 19¢ $10 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 5¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 BUY 3¢ $3 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 34¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY 16¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 10¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $25 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $14 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL 31¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 20¢ $2 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 34¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.55 · official $188.57 · 65 history records