Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa9b…1fbe crypto 494 markets active 4h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-1%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%411W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$81
14 days−$259
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.7% -17.4% 71% 71% -19.3%
≤30d 452 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 28% -10.7%
≤90d 494 -2.1% -11.5% 83% 29% -10.9%
all 494 -2.1% -11.5% 83% 29% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 29% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 8% -19.4%
15% -27.7% 3% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses411 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)494 / 494
History coverage34d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 494 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$34 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$44 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$29 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $24 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $58 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $32 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 988 history records