Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfa9e…2264 weather 980 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,555 (-10%) realized −$2,644 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%568W / 428L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$116
14 days−$133
30 days−$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$1,123
weather 32% −$149
other 15% −$921
crypto 4% +$76
world 1% −$54
tech 0% +$18
economics 0% −$4
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -64.6% -68.0% 20% 15% -16.1%
≤30d 553 -13.5% -21.8% 67% 29% -13.8%
≤90d 996 -6.7% -15.5% 57% 31% -18.1%
all 996 -6.7% -15.5% 57% 31% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 31% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 21% -26.0%
15% -31.0% 14% -33.1%
20% -37.8% 10% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$2,644
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses568 / 428
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions14
Markets (closed)996 / 980
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? Yes 39¢ 99¢ $66 $168 +$102 (+154%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 22¢ 88¢ $26 $106 +$79 (+300%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 19¢ 44¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+134%)
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $28 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Yes 34¢ 37¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in June? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-67%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $38 $1 −$38 (-99%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $43 −$51 -119%
Brazzaville: Karan Singh vs Digvijaypratap Singh Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will El Ittihad SC El Iskandary win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Jiujiang: Hayu Kinoshita vs En-Shuo Liang Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Istanbul: Donna Vekic vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Cajamarca win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazzaville: Calvin Hemery vs Blaise Bicknell Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuxi: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Akira Santillan Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Goyang vs. KCC Egis Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Virtus Entella vs. Carrarese Calcio: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$52 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $162 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $198 −$109 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$45 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $119 +$130 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $107 −$102 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$8 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 +$14 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 08 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$5 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.97 · official $349.95 (match) · 3500 history records